Campaigning for the forthcoming parliamentary elections is due to begin on November 26, and as 24.kg reports, as of November 22 only 22 of the 50 parties had registered their candidates. Among the candidates who are now registered is now-former State Secretary Adakhan Madumarov, running for Ak Jol, who resigned on November 20 in order to participate in the elections.

Unsurprisingly, the elections are already causing concern amongst NGOs, with the newly-established Civil Committee on Voters Rights Protection already reporting Election Code violations. NGOs have already trained up 8 regional coordinators and 20 long-term observers as part of the campaign “Citizens for Free and Fair Elections!”, reports Gazeta.kg, and there are plans to train and deploy 574 short-term observers on election day.

As for possible outcomes, even the most confident Kyrgyzstani politics-watcher would be advised to exercise a degree of caution. Blogger Azamat discusses how the introduction of party lists does not negate the phenomenon of “personality politics”, for example, and also takes a look at the not-so-straightforward issue of vote thresholds and the potential for disputes about outcomes given the fact that parties need to garner 0.5% of the votes of all registered voters countrywide, not just those who actually turn up to vote, as well as 5% of votes cast. Thus, as Azamat explains

political parties will have to get at least 10% in Osh city, 11.3% in Talas oblast, and 9.4% Naryn oblast to get to the parliament. Political parties will have to work especially hard in those oblasts, similar to the battle for Ohio during the 2004 U.S. Presidential elections. If a party wins in all provinces, but gets only 9% of votes in Osh city, it will be refused to enter the parliament.

So far, according to the poll on Gazeta.kg (pretty much as reliable as anything else at this premature stage I reckon), Ata Meken is out in the lead (35%, or 69 people of the 196 voters), with Ak Jol and Ar Namys following with 18% and 24% respectively. As they say, “watch this space”.