April 13 – it is not a time for prognosis
This is a translation of the post by Mirsulzhan, that originally appeared on the Russian version of neweurasia.
My teacher on political forecasting believes that “meetings will be finished, as people have not supported Kulov’s team”. You (my teacher) are not forecaster. It seems to me, that meetings will continue and from now on the quantity of people who are protesting in the square will be increased, despite the very hot weather and the fact that opposition failed in the organizational plan of meetings.
In my opinion, the first day of protests, April 11, was a shock as for Kulov, who relied greatly on his authority, and for all members of the United Front and For Reforms. On the square, there is a rumor that Omurbek Tekebaev and Felix Kulov are at odds, as they had accused each other in corruptness. Everyone, including Sariev, Eshimkanov, Baybolov, was nervous, and worked hard in planning how to go further. If meetings will be finished in such way – it will be a great “punch on the stomack” on authority and image of opposition. Moreover, it also can give more confidence to Bakiev in carrying out all his illegitimate actions, a confidence that h lacks at the moment very much. However, hardly any leader of opposition is concerned about this question.
Now, I assume, that the whole team of the United Front work very intensely. That’s why, they did show up in the square. They are actively involving new people in demonstrations and pays fees for participation in meeting. People from regions should today or tomorrow join and increase number of protesters who are already at the square. They have spent millions “green money” ($) only for the organization of this demonstration and they can spend more money to keep the number of people high and invite more participants.
That’s why, it is too early to be happy and make optimistic plans. “That participants will stand a little bit and go away” is unfortunately nonsense. Moreover, opposition has started building of additional new yurtas (Kyrgyz national house) on the square.











