Editor’s Note: What follows is part of a cross-blog survey that explores what Central Eurasia might look like fifteen years from now.

Let us try to imagine what is gonna happen in Kyrgyzstan in 15 years. Considering the dynamics of events we’ve been recently facing in the country, it has to be emphasized that any kind of prognosis is problematic and tentative.

Though we asked our analysts about their feelings in terms of the future of Kyrgyzstan. Here is the compilation of opinions and materials that we’ve received from the experts. It turned out to be a fantasy in gothic style.

Kyrgyz economy. Services.
As a country with an extremely limited access to natural resources Kyrgyzstan in the future will need to rely on such sources as rendering services (especially tourism) and agriculture in order to sustain its economy and supplement the budget. In 2009 the gold mining giant Kumtor will curtail its production on 30% due to the lack of resources which will inevitably affect the whole of the country which gets exactly 30% of its revenues as taxes from Kumtor’s activity. As it has already been mentioned Kyrgyzstan will suffer from these trends in 2009-2017.

In this situation tourism will become one the vital elements of the budget. Sea side resorts in Issyk Kul and alpine skiing resorts in Kyrgyz Mountains will be experiencing an influx of tourists which will inevitably affect an ecological situation in the country. As a result short terms revenues will be prioritized over ecological concerns.

Industry and infrastructure By 2020 most of the industrial facilities will be outdated and non operating. It is worth keeping in mind, that most of the infrastructure facilities in the country were created under the Soviet Union and after its collapse Kyrgyzstan was not able to sustain it. We really should be prepared to the fact that in 15 years everything that used to be functional in terms of processing metals, producing glass and building materials will all be disabled. Bear in mind extremely poor quality of the transportation in Kyrgyzstan and you will easily be able to agree that Kyrgyzstan is able to “outshine” the poorest nations that are eager to enter the Club Of Poorest Nations (HIPIC). The only field that will still be trembling by 2020 is power engineering that today is almost completely privatized.

Agriculture Farmers will soon realize that in order to get more profits they need to deal with foreign consumers. In the nearest future they will start selling their products to Kazakhstan and China with these countries more solvent markets. It will inevitably deprive Kyrgyz population in terms of the quality and quantity of available goods. Thus agriculture in Kyrgyzstan can potentially become a competitive and a profitable market sector but it will hardly improve the lives of people living in Kyrgyzstan.

Internal politicsKyrgyzstan will continue suffering from the absence of an absolute champion able to win hearts and minds of the population. Political skirmished between factions and individual politicians will continue leading to further disillusionment of the electorate in Kyrgyzstan.

Foreign politics Kyrgyzstan will inevitably face the necessity to choose its main international ally which will result in pushing out one of the military bases currently harbored in the country. Playing on both side will not be possible any longer and the republic will inevitably be confronted by the uneasy choice of sticking to one of Big Brothers. There are 2 possible scenarios here: we will either become an enemy in the perception of the world community or will get a label of CIS traitors in case the choice will be made in favor of western countries. Certain isolation in this case is inevitable.