Will Kyrgyzstan become part of Russian Federation? Why not!
This idea has always been in the air. Russia, has always been considered as a Big Brother of Kyrgyzstan in spite of sporadic outbursts of nationalism, claiming uniqueness and independence of the Kyrgyz statehood. Discussions about re-entering Russian Federation has been partly a joke, partly a provocation, but the frequency of this discussions can make us think that everything is far more serious than just simple speculations.
The most recent example is the suggestion of one of the members of Kyrgyz Parliament Murat Juraev to start considering the idea re-entering Russian for Kyrgyzstan as a confederation state. According to the news agency 24.kg, Juraev spelled out this suggestion during the emergency Parliament session. The agenda of this session was devoted to the discussion of the upcoming opposition rally that is scheduled on November,2. As it was announced by a number of opposition leaders, the ultimate goal of the rally is to bring down the president of the country Kurmanbek Bakiev, if he doesn’t agree to comply with the demands of the movement “Supporting Reforms”. (details of the petition and the analyses of the situation can be found here). The majority in the Kyrgyz Parliament, though, warned their colleagues from the opposition against being uncompromising and holding the rally that, according to many opinions, can hider stability and all positive developments that Kyrgyzstan just recently regained after the revolution of 2005. One of the MPs, Murat Juraev, mentioned in this light:
“Who can guarantee that the so called hidden forces will not use the political crises in the country in their own interests? Who can guarantee that after bringing down Bakiev we can find someone really adequate to replace him?”. To back up his argument Juraev also mentioned : “We don’t need a replicate of Karimov as a new president of Kyrgyzstan and, unfortunately, someone like Putin has not been born in this country yet to take over. So the best choice for us now is to become a part of Russia again to save ourselves a necessity to go through the political crisis that leads us nowhere. ”
The idea o Murat Juraev this time got dissolved in the heated discussion about the future of the country after November, 2, but noone said that the suggestion was not worth discussing later on.
Indeed, what , on the first glance, seems to be just a political adventure, turns out to be quite a reasonable endeavor, if we start analyzing it in details.
Reason 1
Reason 2 Currently there are 500 000 (1/10 of the population) are working in Russia to make ends meet. Talks about dual citizenship for Kyrgyz citizens are held on different political levels with Kyrgyz parliament lobbying this idea. The motivation is to ease lives of Kyrgyz citizens whose existence is tied to Russia in so many different ways.
Reason 3 The current debt of Kyrgyzstan to Russia is $130 million. Considering a never-ending economic crisis that the republic has been experiencing during the last 15 year it is unlikely that we’ll have a glimpse of relief in the nearest future and will be able to pay our debts back. Some experts, though, already started theorizing that it’d be extremely handy if Russia could “forgive” our debts. Probably in exchange to our eternal loyalty.
One more motivation is an emotional one but also has its raison d’etre.
“Our neighbors benefit form the fact that Kyrgyzstan nowadays is extremely weak,”-mentioned Murat Juraev in his parliament address,- “Look at the surrounding countries. Kazakhstan is eager to by everything here. We signed a partnership agreement with Uzbekistan but they still intend to charge us $100 for each cubic meter of gas they export to us. ”
Russia, in this case, according to the deputy, can become a savior for Kyrgyzstan. The idea seems to be genius, but the main concern is whether Russia itself will enthusiastic about accepting a failing state as its new member. The proponents of the idea on the Kyrgyz side don’t hesitate claiming the Kyrgyzstan can become a real asset.
“If you think that Russia will not agree with this suggestion you are mistaken. They will readily accept us with all our debts and problems since they need us a buffer zone”-claims Murat Juraev.
on October 26th, 2006 at 10:06 am
Yulia showed us the bennefits for Kyrgyzstan to become part of Russia, but it would be much more interesting to get an idea why Russia should take Kyrgyzstan as a part of the Russian Federation.
I can not see that yet as part of the Russian forgein policy, neither I can see the willingness of Russia to take over the financial responsebiltiy for this region. Giving direct investments loans and grants combined, Russia is lacking behind all major donors that support the Kyrgyz Government so far. Even its military contributions are lacking behind those of other nations if it comes to the value and supply of military technic & training.
What I can see is the economic importance of Russia to Kyrgyzstan. I can also see a strategic interest of Russia in the Region (including Kyrgyzstan) for resources as well as to control extremism, crime & anarchia which would have a negative effect on Russia itself. But I can not see that this should include the willingness of Russia to include Kyrgyzstan into its territory.
Concering Putin: I can not see a positive effect for any country if it is ruled by an open or icognito authocraty on the long run in the 21 century. Saying this I believe that Kyrgyz MP’s should rather look to participate society in descission making processes and work for a democratic culture that rejects coruption, and abides more to the rule of law than the rule of men.
But in any case if Russia takes over or Kyrgyzstan will get more stable - the road is rocky and it will take a major! effort of society & culture to make a change for the better happen.
on October 27th, 2006 at 6:51 am
Yulia’s reasoning in the article is flawed in several places.
First, Kyrgyzstan, as small country, cannot afford - and detrimental - to rely on one country on everything. Instead, Kyrgyzstan should maintain healthy relations with all the powers (Russia, US, China, EU, Japan, India, Turkey, etc.).
Second, the fact that 500 000 (10% of population) Kyrgyz people are working in Russia as immigrant workers is not a good reason for Kyrgyzstan to join Russia just as why Mexico should not/cannot join the U.S. because it has more than 8 million Mexicans (8% of population) working in the US. In addition, this is a global tendency as some parts of the world (US, Europe, Japan, etc) are in need for working hands because of aging population - or dying population in case of Russia – and some parts of the world are having too many unemployed young people.
Third, Yulia is not considering the fact that $130 millions is only a small portion of the huge over $2 billion of Kyrgyzstan’s external debt. By her logic, we should instead join the IMF creditors (U.S. EU, etc).
Fourth, many people in Kyrgyzstan still look at Russia as, in Akaev’s words “given to Kyrgyzstan by God.” This is the underlying logic in many of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy prejudices. Russia cannot/won’t solve Kyrgyzstan’s problem; it has to many of its own. In fact, Central Asia countries are helping to solve Russia’s problems with underpopulation.
Fifth, who in the hell is Murat Juraev? Consider the source!